08 April, 2012

NHL Playoff Preview - Western Conference

The Western Conference solidified their eight playoff spots after San Jose took down Los Angeles. The Vancouver Canucks finished with 111 points and won the Presidents' Trophy for the 2nd year in a row. The match ups in the West could be the most fun to watch, especially ones that include Detroit, Nashville or Chicago. Here are the 1st round match-ups (be advised...the NHL re-seeds after each round):

Los Angeles Kings (#8) v. Vancouver Canucks (#1): The Kings have the most underrated goalie in the league in Jonathan Quick (35-21-13, 1.95 GAA & a league leading 10 shutouts). The problem with the Kings is that they don't score and they're not that tough. The Canucks were 2nd in the league in goal differential at +51 so they can score and play defense and they have one of the top playmakers in the league in Henrik Sedin. The only issue with the Canucks is that they come off as soft. They're a finesse team and they don't like being pushed around. In last years' playoffs (as a #1 seed) a depleted Chicago Blackhawks (that limped into the playoffs) team took them to a 7th game in the 1st round. The Canucks  had leads of 2-0 and 3-2 against the Bruins in the Stanley Cups Finals and basically didn't show up in games 6 & 7. The Bruins turned up the dial on physical play and the Canucks folded. That's their weakness. Lucky for them the Kings are not that physical.

Prediction: Canucks in 5. The Kings rely way too much on Quick to keep them in games and they no one outside of Anze Kopitar (25 goals/76 points) who can score. Plus Qucik wold have to somehow need to play better in order to stretch this series out.

Detroit Red Wings (#5) v. Nashville Predators (#4): These two teams played in the Central Division and are about as evenly matched as you can get. Nashville has the better goalie in Pekka Rinne (most wins w/43, 2.39 gaa & 5 shutouts) but they don't have an offensive player who scare you (2 players with more than 20 goals). So who do they turn to to get a goal in a close game? Rinne will keep them in any game but where are they going to get a big goal from? Detroit on the other hand have been the Yankees of hockey since the mid 90s. Jimmy Howard may not be as talented as Rinne (35-17-3, 2.12 gaa) but he's more than capable of carrying them deep into the playoffs. Detroit doesn't have a a big time goal scorer but they have plenty of grizzled veterans who can step up & put the puck in the net in a big spot. Detroit is never done until they're 4th loss is a final (much like the Yankees...they're not dead until the body is in the ground and covered with dirt).

Prediction: Detroit in 6. It could go 7 but Detroit just has too much talent and they're too experienced. In order to win the series Nashville would have to jump out to early leads & keep the pressure on but they're not built that way. They can grind it out with the best of them but that's cool with the Wings. I suspect that this series could take a lot out of the winner but this is one series to watch (much like Flyers v. Pens in the East).

Chicago Blackhawks (#6) v. Phoenix Coyotes (#3): Chicago has a lot of talent in Kane, Toews, Sharp and Shaw to name a few. They can score but they're power play is not that good and they are susceptible to scoring droughts. Their problem is in the net. Corey Crawford was the starter to being the year, lost it to Emery midway through the season and recently won it back. Crawford is not as good as Phoenix's Mike Smith (37 wins, 2.23 gaa & 8 shutouts) so he will need to take to another level in order to advance far into the playoffs. Phoenix won the weak Pacific Division by 1 point. This is a team that shouldn't scare anyone on paper but they are capable of beating anyone & are not to be taken lightly. They can play defense and scored just enough over the regular season. BTW, this series has 2 former Hartford Whalers' coaching against each other Quennville for Chicago and Dave Tippett for Phoenix (that's 3 former Whalers coaching in the playoffs plus Dean Evason is an assistant to Dale Hunter in Washington. Just a little Whaler pride!).

Prediction: Chicago in 6. Phoenix could win this series also but Chicago has too much firepower. If Chicago wants to avoid a prolonged series they need to jump out to early leads and execute better on the power play. The Coyotes are no pushover.

San Jose Sharks (#7) v. St Louis Blues (#2): The Blues missed the playoffs the last 2 years (despite a good record each year) but really turned the jets on once Ken Hitchcock (won a Stanley Cup with Dallas in 1999) was installed as head coach 13 games into the season. The Blues are young, energetic and dangerous. They don't score a lot of goals but they play tight defense and have solid goaltending in Halak and Elliot. With youth comes questions as to how they can stand up to adversity. Halak & Elliot combined for 48 wins so who's the number #1? The Sharks are similar in a sense that they don't score a lot but not much gets past them. Antti Niemi was the goaltender for Chicago when they took the Cup home in 2010 and he had a solid year in net. Joe Thornton is still a great playmaker and they have 3 other solid centers in Couture (31 goals), Pavelski (31 goals) and Marleau (29 goals) who can put the puck in the net. 

Prediction: Sharks in 6 maybe 7 for the upset. My boss is a big Blues fan & he's got playoff tickets. By no means are the Sharks a lock to win the series but they're a veteran team that went to the conference finals the last 2 years.. Hitchcock is a better coach than Todd McLellan but Hitchcock hasn't had the recent success that McLellan has outside of this year. This is another series to keep an eye on. 

So if my predictions hold up, in the Semi-Finals would look like this:

  • Sharks v. Canucks
  • Blackhawks v. Red Wings
Ideally I would like to see Chicago represent the West in the Stanley Cup finals because they're Original Six and they're not Detroit (plus being from Chicago means TV ratings). We shall see what unfolds. As always you're comments & opinions are welcome. Thanks for your time.

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