09 October, 2011

Moneyball revisited

As we enter the next round of the baseball playoffs (LCS), the big market teams (Yankees & Phillies) have exited early. Add in the fact that the Red Sox (payroll $162 million) had an epic September collapse to allow the Tampa Bay Rays (payroll $41 million) to make it into the playoffs. With all those recent big money acquisitions (Lackey, Crawford & Gonzalez) the Red Sox had a September stretch where they went 6-18 in their last 24 games. The Rays (whose payroll is about as much as the 3 Red Sox I mentioned) went 16-8 in the same 24 game stretch overtaking the Sox by 1 game. Boston's 2 pitching aces (Beckett & Lester) went a combined 2-5 in September. To paraphrase ESPN's Bill Simmons, neither Beckett nor Lester was able to step up during the spiral and put the team on his back. To add insult to injury the Red Sox were picked by everyone in the pre-season to represent the American League in the World Series.

Boston aside, the Phillies (payroll $173 million) won 102 games, had a tough line-up and easily the best starting rotation that baseball has seen in a long time, http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2011.shtml. The Phillies were beaten by the Cardinals in 5 games. Phillie ace Roy Halladay pitched a great game, 8 IP 1 ER, but Cardinal ace Chris Carpenter pitched magnificently, CG 3H 10ks. Let's not forget the fact that the Phillies beat up on the Braves at the end of the season allowing the Cardinals in slip in (the Braves collapse would be historic if not for the Red Sox being epically historic). The Cardinals are not a small market team, they just spend a bit more wisely than other teams. The Phillies were the odds on favorite to not only represent the National League in the World Series but to win it all.

That leaves the New York Yankees (payroll $202 million). The Yankees have had the highest payroll for years. They charge a lot of money so ownership has felt that they need to field a championship caliber team every year. Getting into the playoffs for the Yankees isn't enough, only hoisting the World Series trophy is considered a successful season in the Bronx. The Yankees have been taking a lot of heat for losing to the Tigers at home in an elimination game. They didn't get a lot of production from their 4,5 & 6 hitters A-Rod, Teixeira & Swisher (the 3 were represented as the Three Stooges on the back page of the Daily News or whatever after the game 5 loss). A-Rod makes about $30 million and Teixeira made $22.5 million, not quite the bang for the buck the organization would have like to have seen in a big spot.

What's left is the Detroit Tigers (10 highest payroll at $105.7 milion), St. Louis Cardinals (11th highest payroll at $105.4 million), Texas Rangers ($93 million) and the Milwaukee Brewers ($85 million, 17th highest). Only the Brewers are in the lower half of the league in payroll. Both the Brewers & the Cards face a dilemma in re-signing their best player. Prince Fielder, Brewers 1st baseman, is in the final year of a contract that pays him $15.5 million. Many believe that they will not be able to meet his asking price (probably somewhere in the Mark Teixeira neighborhood). The Brewers weren't able to re-sign Sabathia when he became a free agent, allowing the Yankees to back the Brinks truck up to CC's home. Albert Pujols made it clear before spring training that he wanted a long term deal that would make him one of the highest paid players in the game. As I stated earlier, the Cards spend money but a 10 year $300 million contract (the numbers being thrown about at the beginning of the year) would be difficult for them (probably difficult for any team but the Yankees but they've got A-Rod & Teixeira locked up for awhile so they're out).  In my opinion, Pujols, 3 time MVP, didn't help himself with what could arguably his worst year as a pro; .299 BA, 37Hr, 99 RBI, 105 R & led the NL in grounding into double plays (95% of all players would love to have a crappy year like that but when you compare it to the rest of his career it's a bad year. Don't take my word for it see for yourself, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pujolal01.shtml).

Make no mistake payroll is an issue. The top 2 payrolls won the most games and had home field advantage in the playoffs until the World Series. However, the 3-9 highest payrolls did not make the playoffs (some teams, let's say the Mets & the Cubs for example, were terrible) including the 2010 Champs the SF Giants (8th highest at $118 million). You also had the Diamondbacks win the NL West (25th payroll at $53 million) and the Rays (see above for their payroll info) making the playoffs as well. Being able to spend money helps but it obviously doesn't guarantee you a championship or a playoff appearance for that matter.

There's just a whole lot of factors that come into play. The Minnesota Twins were considered the blue print of a small market team that had made it to the post season with frequency, since 2002 they've made the playoffs 6 times but only got to the LCS in 2006 and they got swept. This year ( a payroll of $112 million) after getting a new stadium and re-signing their best player, Joe Mauer, they proceeded to won only 63 games. Injuries played a big factor for the Twins. Injuries are always be a problem, A-Rod missed 63 games this year (I even heard a caller on the Chris "Mad Dog" Russo show say "if A-Rod can't juice, he can't produce" in reference to his steroid issues) the Red Sox had injuries within the pitching staff. In addition to injuries there can sometimes be bad decisions by upper management (the Mets & Dodgers vault to the forefront here) and of course guys who just don't produce even when healthy.

In regards to poor decision making, the Yankees are going to be in a tough spot over the next few years. A-Rod will be into his 40's y the time his massive contract expires and his production has dropped off a bit and he's missed 150 games since 2008. Teixeira hit 39 homers but a measly .248 batting average (since BA has gone down since his arrival in the Bronx, I've even heard Yankee fans call in & say that he doesn't hit in the clutch). Jeter is old but he's still got it despite a slow start in 2011 but in his late 30's he may not be able to cover the ground he was did. Sabathia may opt out and demand more money (he made $23 million this year) and more years as well as  taking heat for being too fat. Stephen A. Smith of ESPN wrote that the Yankees can pay him more but they shouldn't give him a long term deal, he's not the only person to take that stance. The Yankees blinked when A-Rod opted out a few years ago and they made a bad deal because of it so I think they're too smart to make the same mistake but who knows.

It will be interesting to see who ends up in the World Series. So far the playoffs have been great to watch. I don't have a dog in the fight so I wouldn't mind seeing Milwaukee & Detroit in the Fall Classic but I think the Tigers & the Cardinals is the more compelling match-up.

Not really sure if I went anywhere with this but if someone reads it, thanks for your time.

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